Cavani and Valencia CF: How to Properly Analyse Strikers

I firmly believe it doesn’t take more than common sense to agree that to evaluate the performance of strikers, one must be careful: they depend on the team to do their job.

A goalkeeper can overperform whether the team does well, or save them from a disaster. At times, their profession almost feels like a tennis player when their team ‘maroons’ them to play on their own.

Yesterday, I saw a perfect example of that. I found several examples in the press of journalists criticizing the performance of Cavani yesterday when Valencia lost 2-0 to Real Madrid on the road.

But the game was simply horrid. The clock was already striking 55 minutes and Valencia hadn’t had one single shot. I said one. Not even one of those that end up very far from the target. They had had 1/3 of the possession, and it was as much of a one-side game as possible.

Proper Football and Betting Analysis

One of the most valuable lessons for beginners in the world of sports betting is to see football as a collective sport.

It may sound obvious, but it most certainly isn’t the case for many people in the football community.

Many professionals, not just from the press, but even bettors at times, pundits, and agents, not to mention fans, fail to see that it’s imperative to first analyse the team and then the strikers.

Other positions are like that, but the strikers’ case is very special. If you ever played as a striker in real-life amateur football, or even just esport in the modes where you control only one player, and you choose a striker, this sensation becomes quite clear.

The sensation of having to wait for the team to work the ball to you sometimes translates as pure agony! And the worst thing is if you try to ‘visit’ the midfield to help, and you’re a professional footballer, your manager may end up very angry. You may end up missing that ball, the game changer of the evening because you were not ‘disciplined enough to wait and trust your team’.

Cavani and What Happened in Madrid on February 2nd, 2023

Uruguay flag

I know Edinson Cavani is far from his prime. The Uruguayan will be 36 on the 14th of this month, but he did his job: waiting for a good assist to score.

I used the word agony in this article and while I watched the game Real Madrid 2 – 0 Valencia CF, that was my exact impression of how Cavani was feeling during the game.

Betting Review of Real Madrid 2 – 0 Valencia CF

The match was an absolute one-side game. But there was no value right away to bet on Los Blancos. The 1×2 markets for Real Madrid v Valencia had very low odds around hosts to win (‘1’ market) @ 1.34 and in the Asian Handicap, Real Madrid -1.25 @1.90 on average.

I hardly ever back Madrid unless we have at least -0.75 @ even odds or close to that because this Carlo Ancelotti team has a tendency to be comfortable with a one goal advantage.

I think there’s a huge gap between their fair odds for -0.5 and -1.5, that is, the odds for Real Madrid to win by one goal or 2+ goals which is not currently reflected in the Asian Handicap betting markets.

In fact, historically the big handicaps tend to lose more than the ‘positive’ handicaps. We’ll explore more about the subject in a series of upcoming articles about how to bet on the games of specific teams, starting with Real Madrid later today.