Copa del Rey Final: Real Madrid v Osasuna Betting Preview

The match will be played in Seville, on a neutral field

I think no one can’t stand anymore reading articles saying this game is a case of David v Goliath within Spanish footie.

Let’s go a bit beyond this and actually, explore what isn’t so obvious over here.

In the case of David and Goliath, we can say that both cared about the result of that event.

Real Madrid has been a bit careless when it comes to the last La Liga fixtures, after Barça seemed to go beyond reach or almost certainly beyond reach.

Nevertheless, Osasuna does care about this final more than Real Madrid. Of course, Real Madrid is expected to care about this game because there’s silverware involved. And the UCL may be their beloved ground, but it’s still the UCL, so Copa del Rey may eventually be the only silverware they touch in 2022/23.

Osasuna however is living a dream by being involved in this game. But Real Madrid will face what should be the hardest game of the season next Tuesday against Man City in the Champions League semis first leg.

Will Carletto make substitutions if ahead in the score, aiming, for example, the freshness of players like Benzema, Modric or Kroos? We can at least question these things, while it’s just unthinkable to Osasuna, they’ll give everything they have.

But what are the consequences of these things for the betting markets?

Real Madrid (n) v Osasuna: Betting Analysis

Real Madrid ‘1’ selection in the 1×2 betting market is trading at 1.35 in the decimal odds system. I think it’s fair to have Real Madrid with low odds in a -0.5 equivalent market.

But the Asian Handicap may be a little unbalanced. Real Madrid -1.5 @ 1.96 is what we have now. But considering how Carletto needs to balance the needs in terms of fitness, and there’s a small window of time between today’s game and the big Tuesday clash against Man City, I think the natural instincts of Italian managers will speak louder. He just needs one goal of advantage to win the Copa del Rey title.

Of course, if behind in the score, Osasuna tends to attack like there’s no tomorrow, because in this competition, there really isn’t.

However, I’m not a big fan of big handicaps (negative ones) and this is a classic case of that.

I guess -1 @2.0 ish would be a better way to balance the probabilities of what we tend to see later in Seville.

Does that mean Osasuna +1.5 @1.9 ish is a valuable selection? I wouldn’t be too thrilled about buying it and holding it until the final whistle, but perhaps buying it and seeing RM -1.5 melting into a more palatable -1, it could be an interesting goal for those fond of hedge betting opportunities.

I don’t have any specific thoughts about correct score or over/under. However, Real Madrid’s defense has been a source of bad surprises when they don’t have Alaba and Militão at their best, and especially when they have Nacho anywhere on the pitch. When Nacho is fielded as a LB we can always expect the unexpected in terms of goals, so I wouldn’t buy under lines too easily, but that still doesn’t constitute great reasons for any specific pre match bet.