Elche v Real Valladolid – Betting Preview


Elche Summary

After their first win a month ago against Villarreal, the outlook has slightly improved for Elche who are not going down without a fight.

While most fans are already thinking about the prospect of the second division next season, they did clock up another win last weekend at high-flying Mallorca.

However, due to other results going in favour of the sides immediately above them, the chances of staying up haven’t improved much. Elche sits 15 points from safety positions in the La Liga 2022/23 table.

The probable outcome is that they are doomed to go down as the 20th-placed side this season but even with that in mind, Elche is putting up stern tests in recent matches. At worse, they are now playing for pride and certain players will be playing for their places next season.

Team news-wise and they have a small chance of star man Pere Milla returning, while Pape Cheikh is missing with a ban.

Enzo Roco and Magallán return from suspension, the former is expected to regain his spot in the side despite a great defensive performance last time out.


Real Valladolid Summary

Real Valladolid has put reasonable ground between them and the bottom three thanks to a scattering of wins from mid-January including the vital 3 points gained to relegation rival Espanyol last time out.

This is a must not lose game really against rock-bottom Elche. They tend to rely on home form but will aim to win here.

Team news is mixed. Masip remains out and won’t be back for around a month.

Asenjo continues in goal, a veteran with good experience and quality but question marks about his lack of starting minutes in recent years. He had a good showing in the win over Espanyol last weekend

Kenedy, Anuar, and Selim Amallah all remain out. The latter of those was banned last time out but got an injury in training and will miss all of the match as a result.

Pacheta also lost Luis Pérez but in the one piece of positive news, Escudero returns.

Playing the centre-forward role will be either Sergio León or the in-form Larin, and the latter seems to be the one that brings much more to the team.

Larin has been more effective with goals, scoring 3 in 6 starts while Sergio Leon has netted 5 goals but from 12 starts this season. The graphic below underlines that Larin is the more productive player, and has quickly become a fan favourite.


Betting Analysis

Looking at the 1×2 market first.  Elche and Valladolid to win is the same price @ 2.70. The draw could be the value here @ 3.30.

Moving onto the Asian handicap betting for this contest.

So close is the betting between these two well-matched sides, the Draw no bet (DNB) is offered as a cushion. So a bet on either Elche -0 @ 1.92 or Valladolid -0 @ 1.94 would see the full stake returned should it end as a draw.

Looking at The Under/Over goal line last of all. Any regular readers of this site will know the view on Elche for the last month or more when they are at home has been that goals are becoming more likely.

However, the market has latched on to this as the line is 2.25, where it would have been 1.75 or a maximum of 2 not long ago.

This 2.25 line is not attractive and on top of that, the Over is odds on @ 1.87. Would pass on this or wait for a goalless 20 minutes or so, then consider hitting if the line gets to 1.75 or even 1.5.  Under is @ 1.96.