Germany – Japan: World Cup Betting Preview

by Dan King under the supervision of Lucas Mondelo

Group E Betting Analysis

Let’s learn more about the upcoming game between two adversaries of Spain in the World Cup: Group E foes Germany and Japan

Matchday 1 and the adversaries of Spain in Qatar

Germany Summary

After 15 years of Joachim Low at the helm, there is a new feel and look about the Germans heading to Qatar. The new boss Hansi Flick is tipped to call on a significant Bayern Munich element in their probable starting XI. This should be seen as a positive, giving a stable club feel about the team.

Former boss Low led them to the disastrous 2018 campaign in Russia, exiting at the group stage. Euro 2020 was not much better but the knockout defeat to England spurred a run of eight consecutive wins, including 9-0 and 6-0 routs of Liechtenstein and Armenia.

The only doubt for the Japan contest is fringe attacker Niclas Fulkrug, who missed a few days with illness before being cleared on Sunday.

Hansi Flick looks set to name no less than seven Bayern Munich men in the German side to face Japan, with the defence seeing the fewest faces from the most famous club in their lands.

Japan Summary

For the Japanese team, this will be their seventh World Cup appearance in a row and the nation is respected at this level. However, without any star man and a struggling attack, the modest set of players has been unable to build any real expectations of getting out of this group.

Japan’s first four matches of 2022 were qualifiers, including 2-0 wins over Saudi Arabia and Australia. From there, each match has essentially been a friendly during which their only blip came with a 3-0 defeat to Tunisia.

Coming into this tournament they have improved confidence with a win and draw versus higher profile nations USA and Ecuador, respectively.

Japan’s strengths are that they have a good work ethic, strong technical players, and a respected defence. They would certainly take a draw from this match, but the manager Moriyasu is expected to use a 4-2-3-1.

For the opening game with Germany, team news is good. They have only one doubt which is Sporting Lisbon player Hidemasa Morita.

Betting Analysis

Looking at the 1×2 betting market first. Germany is the overwhelming favourite priced @ 1.47 to get the win. Japan would shock the world if they won, hence the price @ 7.00The most realistic aim for the outsider here is the draw which is @ 4.65

On the Asian handicap market, Germany -1.25 @ 2.030 need to gain a victory by two goals against a defensive Japan to reward punters with a full win. Should they settle for a narrow one-goal cushion then followers would get back half of their stake. At odds against the well-drilled Germans could be the team to follow, likely scores are 2-0 and 3-0. Japan +1.25 are @ 1.84 to avoid a two-goal loss.

Looking at the Under/Over goals market now. The punters will probably have to rely on Germany heavily to get the goals in this one-sided-looking game. Over 2.75 is a marginal favourite @ 1.86, while under 2.75 goals is @ 1.97.

The sense is that if the match goes Japan’s way, it will stay tight and see none or just a single goal. The timing of the first goal dictates how much this contest opens up.