Real Madrid Drops 2 Points at Bernabéu: Any Title Hope Left?
The situation for Los Blancos worsened considerably with this result. Now both Barça and Real Madrid have 18 games played, and the Catalunya side is 5 points clear.
History shows us that when either Real Madrid or Barcelona secure an advantage that the rivals can’t dissolve in a single derby, that is a strong indicator that the ship is kind of sailed.
20 Game Weeks Left: What Now?
Barcelona and Real Madrid will have very different semesters. Real Madrid will be in the Champions League, while Barcelona will be in the Europa League where they are more likely to use subs and rotate heavily the squad than their Madrid rivals.
The game against Real Sociedade showed how Real Madrid depends a lot on Modric in tough games, and the Copa del Rey game against Atleti was very tiring considering the extra time, which may have affected their capacity to pressure the Basque County visitors in the final moments of the game that ended a few minutes ago.
I believe it’s fair to assume that Barça and Real Madrid will face Copa del Rey similarly if they get to face Athletic Bilbao and Osasuna in the semi-finals. If, however, the Copa del Rey drawing that will happen tomorrow presents us with a semi-final between Barça and Real Madrid then we’ll have a different situation and another heavy game on their calendars before the end of the season.
Betting Markets Situation: La Liga Title Fight
The markets clearly believe in Barça with average odds in the house of 1.25 in the decimal system. These are big odds, and if we had a fair price here, it would ‘mean’ 80% of chance to see Barça winning.
Does Real Madrid only have such a little chance of winning? I guess there may be some value in the Real Madrid odds of 3.50 widely available at this moment.
If Barça drops points, even if it is just a draw, and Real Madrid wins their game of the week, these Ream Madrid 3.50 odds can be liquidated and cashed out at favourable prices.
Also, if Real Madrid wins the next derby between Barça and Los Blancos, and they make this distance become of just 2 points instead of 5, then the outright will become profitable too.
It’s all a matter of how much faith you have in each side right now
Real Madrid VS Barcelona: Who’s Better Right Now?
I think there’s a lot to question about the last game between them in Saudi Arabia. It’s fair to question the true ‘hunger’ of Real Madrid to win that game, as the Madrid press did.
A game valid for La Liga and perhaps even Copa del Rey could be different right now.
I see some potential in young names that aren’t so young such as Rodrygo and Vini Jr. to be strong game changers that right now we mostly see at Gavi. The age gap between them can be an important factor. A player in his 20s is less likely to oscillate than a teenager.
Real Madrid also had some good news in the game against Real Sociedad: Camavinga is showing that he can be an interesting left-back, not only playing for France, but also wearing white.
I believe that the next game to be played in Barcelona on March 19th will be vital to seal the fates of both teams in the tournament.
Real Sociedad in Madrid: Not as Great as Expected
Real Sociedad was kind of lucky not to lose the game, and in my opinion and in the opinion of lots of people from the press, their GK Álex Remiro was the man of the match of Real Madrid 0 – 0 Real Sociedad.
Vini Jr. and Modric had very dangerous shots that could have delivered the 3 points to Real Madrid.
I guess it’s not a major problem from a technical point of view to drop points against the team that is 3rd place now, but the problem is other points that Los Blancos have been dropping in previous rounds.
My View on the Title Fight
Barcelona is obviously the favourites. But I see some value in the current prices of Real Madrid. An important thing in the betting markets is to understand that a bet can be good, even if you don’t see it as the most likely outcome. That’s exactly what’s going on here.
What about Real Sociedad to win the fight? At 201.00 I guess there might be some value here too, but I’m not a fan of these crazy long shots. It’s one thing when Atletico Madrid becomes rock solid from the beginning, but such an unlikely event is hard to bet on.