Real Madrid is Getting Traction… So What?!
Los Blancos are doing significantly better than before and immediately after the World Cup. Hard to get victories against Villarreal, Athletic Bilbao and the Madrid rivals Atletico can already be called an impressive winning streak.
Against Villarreal, there was some considerable rotation in the starting Xi, against Bilbao, well Bilbao is always a tough opponent, and yesterday’s victory against Atleti surely wasn’t an easy task.
Performance and Betting Market Expectations: Real Madrid in the 1st Semester
Real Madrid surely is allowing the madridista fan base to dream big. They are the defending Champions of the Champions league and La Liga, they have qualified to the Round of 16 of the UCL, they are just a few points behind Barça in La Liga, and now they have reached the semi-finals of Copa del Rey.
Let’s have a look at their outright odds… In the outright market of La Liga, Barça has very low odds to lift the trophy: 1.40 on average, while the title holders Real Madrid have odds of 2.88 on average.
I can’t really see a reason for such low odds. I understand that Real Madrid may be forced to rotate more heavily than Barça, considering their hopes to go far in the Champions League, but these odds are way too imbalanced in my opinion. Something closer to even, like Barcelona 1.8 to 2 and Real Madrid 2.2 to 2.4 would probably be closer to the fair odds.
Some of the factors behind my analysis include the fact that Barça needs to win La Liga to avoid a void season, while Real Madrid is more comfortable as one of the favourites to go very, very far in the Champions League, while Barça melancholically needs to focus on… Europa League’s knockout stage.
Real Madrid in The Champions League
These are the five teams with the lowest odds – meaning the most likely, in order, teams to win the ongoing edition of the UEFA Champions League according to the betting markets
1st: Man City, odds of 2.72
2nd: FC Bayern: odds of 7.26
3rd: PSG: odds of 7.92
4th: Liverpool: odds of 10
5th: Real Madrid, odds of 12.28
Really, 5th place? Last season I remember pointing out that Real Madrid having odds of 10+ to win the UCL was just obscene. And guess what… they lifted yet another trophy. The 14th in their history! And no one else has even ten trophies.
Sometimes it can be hard to make sense of what’s going on in the betting markets. The markets are influenced both by professionals betting dozens of millions of Euros every midweek and weekend, and the retail market of recreational bettors which is a lot more subject to the hype and ‘trending love’ for some teams like PSG and Man City.
If you ask me, I’d say there certainly is great value in the odds of Real Madrid. Two teams with zero titles in the Champions League can’t possibly have far bigger odds than Real Madrid. The reason is simple: when the final arrives, pressure mounts over teams with zero history in a tournament. The UCL final is Real Madrid’s domain.
That must matter.