Scotland v Spain – Betting Preview


Scotland Summary

The mood is very positive and the confidence is on a rather dramatic rise, something which is rare in the Scottish camp.

Scotland raced to a convincing and impressive win against Cyprus over the weekend, gaining a 3-0 victory at Hampden park.

Despite overseeing the big win on home soil, Scotland boss Steve Clarke didn’t let the players drown in glory for long. The former Chelsea player and assistant to Jose Mourinho has already put pressure on his team, demanding more from his players for the imminent visit of Spain.

This makes sense as the Spanish is a much tougher opponent and real test of their improving form.

Their recent record in this ground is excellent. Scotland has scored 10 goals while conceding just one, though this is a much different game compared to triumphs over Armenia, Ireland, Ukraine, and Cyprus.

Looking at team news now; the host has lost Southampton Che Adams who limped off after an hour in the last game. He will be replaced by Lyndon Dykes in the centre-forward role.

With this forced move they lose pace and a more dynamic player in Adams, to a more towering and aggressive Dykes that relies on service and his aerial ability, as shown in the illustration below.

The other key difference here is that they lose an EPL striker to a level 2 championship player. Their Goal contribution is about the same but crucially, Adams stats are relative to a much higher level, so this is a big loss for the Scots.


Spain Summary

Spain began the new era under Luis de la Fuente in a positive but not entirely convincing fashion with a misleading 3-0 win over a Haaland-free Norway.

The Norwegians missed big chances at 0-0 and 1-0 before succumbing to two late quick-fire goals which gave Spain a 3-0 win in Malaga.

De la Fuente’s squad looked united and played some reasonable football, though this is not a squad that will put fear into any of the top nations in Europe right now.

Spain has a clean bill of health coming into the game and all eyes will be on Joselu starting or not. This after his quick-fire brace as a sub against Norway.

Considering his lack of experience and quality at this level, it is probable he remains on the bench once more with Alvaro Morata keeping his place. In reality, neither will put fear into the Scotland defence but they would feel more comfortable with the one-paced Joselu, so a negative if he starts.

Betting Analysis

Looking at the 1×2 market first.  Spain was not convincing at home to Norway and is opposable at 1.60.

Scotland is @ 5.50 to win while the draw, something the host would happily take, is @ 3.70.

Moving onto the Asian handicap betting for this contest. Spain -0.75 @ 1.85 looks fair enough.

The Spanish won’t like this physical game and the longer it stays 0-0, the more likely they will settle for a 1-0.

My belief is that 1-1 is more likely than 0-2 so on that basis, a preference for Scotland +0.75 @ 1.98.

Looking at The Under/Over goal betting last of all. The line is at 2.25. An early goal, either way, opens it up.

Scotland can score against this Spanish side which was fortunate to not concede a couple against a Haaland-free Norway. Over is @ 1.82 while the Under is @ 1.96.

I expect a high tempo and tight game initially. In this kind of match more than normal, the timing of the first goal is important and only then will it open up.

If Scotland score first then they will sit back and give everything to win 1-0. Spain scoring first and early is better for those on overs or looking to bet overs in running.