Valencia – Betis: Betting Preview
By Dan King under the supervision of Lucas Mondelo
A struggling Valencia start this La Liga round 7 points away from their target of being a top six club, with confidence and morale very fragile right.
The home side failed to overcome ten-man Real Sociedad last weekend and were forced to settle for a 1-1 draw, leaving them sitting in 11th spot before the Wednesday matches take place.
Valencia will be hopeful important centre back Gabriel Paulista has recovered enough to begin for their difficult home game with Real Betis.
The former Arsenal defender was forced off early in the Basque country last week but his chances look quite good to begin here.
The more immediate concern is veteran Cavani who also suffered a knock last weekend. He is available but is uncertain to be risked against Betis, possibly weakening their attacking potential.
The Uruguayan has been a big hit since joining in the summer and although he has not been ruled out, Marcos Andre seems likely to get the nod and lead the line.
In defence Diakhaby remains out and so the host are potentially weaker in both defence and attack. Some minor rotation is possible, with Kluivert possibly losing his starting spot in the team to winger Castillejo on the right flank.
Real Betis Preview
Real Betis were frustrated with allowing bitter rivals Sevilla take a point from them in the hot tempered Andalusian derby last weekend. They travel to Valencia with a 7-point gap between them and their host, with plenty of confidence given they won their Europa league group and sit in an impressive 5th spot in the domestic table prior to Wednesday night matches taking place.
Real Betis already had numerous important injury absences and after having two key men sent off in the derby last time out, their team news is of big concern.
Important holding midfielders Guido Rodriguez and Filipe Luiz are carrying knocks while experienced attacking men Juanmi and Joaquin are long term absentees.
The suspended duo of Fekir and Borja Iglesias will be a major concern for boss Pellegrini, with the Willian Jose getting a rare start as a centre forward.
1×2 match odds see Valencia to win at 2.20, with Betis grabbing a win at 3.30 and the deemed the least likely event being a draw at 3.55. Given team news and what is likely to be a close match, a point each would not surprise at all.
Valencia -0.25 in the Asian Handicap scenario are slight favourites in the Asian betting market. Having opened just over evens, the host are now around 1.860 to get the win. The market moved in their favour likely based around Betis negative team news.
At first glance the host perhaps appear flattered to be favourites and could be easy for punters to take on. They have now gone five matches without a win and will feel the pressure from their demanding home support to get a win.
If Valencia can cope with the pressure and deal with a Betis team which will try to keep the ball and frustrate, then they could get a much-needed win.
In Valencia’s favour is the accumulated fatigue factor as Betis +0.25 / 2.000 could already be feeling the strain having battled hard to clinch first in their Europa League group which ended last week. A freshener Valencia meanwhile have been able to focus purely on the domestic football.
The total goals market is set at 2.25 @ 1.990 which looks fair. Slight concerns about an open game with goals is that there will be mutual respect between the sides and Betis are missing key attacking men.
Given their team news, a defensively solid visitor would likely settle for a point to maintain momentum heading into the world cup break.
If Betis (only scored 17 in La Liga) play with a cautious mindset, it is of course a negative, in which case an early goal for a more dangerous Valencia attack (Goals for at 19) is good for overs backers.