The Aftermath of a Historical: Barça 0 – 4 Real Madrid
One of the most interesting bets in terms of value happened almost as late as possible. As I mentioned in one of our websites from our network, soccernuts.net, Real Madrid seemed underestimated in several markets.
First half 1×2 was a clear example. Real Madrid to be winning by the end of the first half, had odds in the house of 3.5+.
The problem with that price is Barcelona didn’t need to win the game, let alone the first half. Of course, Real Madrid didn’t dominate that much in the first half. But 3.5 is a very big odd.
The odds close to 3 for Real Madrid -0.5 or 1×2 FT were also a bit too high, but we also had situations of odds that seemed ok that were beaten, like under 2.5 circa 2.0.
The meltdown of Barça certainly wasn’t that much likely. But it does show us how Barcelona looks like a team with very good players, but still not a collectively oiled machine such as Real Madrid.
One fact that illustrates this is how Xavi uses Araújo as a Right Back to block Vini Jr. when facing Los Blancos.
A constant change in the formation just because of one player clearly tells us that Barça isn’t ready to face anyone, regardless of the formation and line-up, like in the past, by using their usual starting XI.
The leading position at La Liga seems to be misleading in this sense, but the truth is Real Madrid dropped too many points with repeated mistakes like some problematic defensive formations involving, for example, bad days of Nacho as a left-back, the short-lived idea of using Rüdiger in that role, and the inexplicable presence of Rodrygo as a constant bench-warmer.
What now for Real Madrid?
Los Blancos will face Chelsea in a poor moment for The Blues. Personally, I believe that Chelsea needed a more seasoned manager than Potter to build a team with the recently arrived young talent.
But the poor results ended his spell a lot earlier than I expected. The directors of Chelsea should have in mind that this chase to qualify for the UCL and even UEL in the next season wasn’t easy. No one ever has qualified for European level footie by spending €500m in January, simply because no one ever spent this kind of money in the winter transfer window.
Real Madrid surely has what it takes to qualify for the UCL semis, and they have an easy path to qualify for the next UCL via La Liga, as well as a very tangible probability of lifting silverware against Osasuna in the Copa del Rey final.
Barcelona and The Future
I don’t believe that what happened in Barcelona yesterday could lead to a meltdown at La Liga that could allow Real Madrid to win that title.
But I do believe that the question in the air for Barça is related to the potential consequences of the Negreira case and not the plans for the potential party for the title of La Liga.
While I doubt that UEFA would devalue the UCL – one of their assets – by axing Barça (regardless of whether this punishment is potentially deserved or not), I think the situation and the question marks in the air make a complex combo that could, for example, affect the plans of Messi for the future, which is also a big question in Barcelona these days, as the fans ‘mentioned’ his name in their singing for the first time in the last months very recently.