Valencia v Almeria – Betting Preview


Match Summary

Valencia’s La Liga woes continued as they failed to win against relegation-threatened Almeria in an unconvincing performance.

Having survived a missed penalty in the first half, Valencia’s worries continued as Los Che twice let a lead slip to draw 2-2 with Almería at Mestalla, a result which means they have now won just once in their last nine outings.

The immediately agitated Mestalla were treated to a frantic opening 10 minutes, with the hosts creating three excellent opportunities to open the scoring.

Yunus Musah, Justin Kluivert, and top scorer Edinson Cavani were all off target, and with that wastefulness, frustrations grew in the stadium.

Almeria has struggled on the road this season and so it was little surprise that they didn’t threaten much at all for most of the first half.

Against the run of play however, Almeria got a massive chance to score first when awarded a penalty. The ball hit the arm of Gabriel Paulista who slid to block a dangerous shot. Ramazani however saw his spot-kick hit the post and drop away to safety.

Gattuso got an improved version of his side in the second half. In less than three minutes after the restart, André Almeida’s delivery into the area bounced nicely for Kluivert, who timed his header to perfection into the corner.

Almeria reacted well and they were level just six minutes later when Lucas Robertone’s corner was headed in by Chumi to stun the home crowd.

Valencia then had a wild ten minutes which saw a penalty overturned by VAR and Samuel Lino’s headed goal ruled out for offside. Soon after Gayà forced the ball home on the rebound to restore his side’s lead, fully merited at the time.

Unfortunately for Valencia who merited the win based on chance, the drama was not over as sub-Francisco Portillo capitalised on a defensive error to level late on. Fair score 2-1.


Betting Analysis

Looking at the 1×2 market first, the draw was the winning bet in this section @ 3.90. The home side dictated much of the game but looked vulnerable too often to ever be considered such a commanding favourite. Valencia perhaps did do enough to win but the 1.69 price before kick-off was flattering considering their obvious shortcomings both mentally and technically.

Moving onto the Asian handicap market for this contest. As outlined in the preview and commented on above, Valencia -1 was flattering. Almeria +1 was the value as detailed in the betting analysis of the contest. They missed a penalty but probably did not deserve a draw, but the value told as the selection won @ 1.80.

Looking at The Under/Over market last of all. Over 2.5 was priced @ 1.80 and thanks to a wild second half, was the winning bet of the two options. Under backers pre kick off could easily have traded out for a profit at the break, as it was 0-0 at HT and looked to be headed for a very low scoring game. The second half was a different game however and ultimately, 3 goals or more were merited.