How to Profit Betting on the Matches of Real Madrid
This guide is about techniques to profit by betting on the games of Real Madrid. If want to start learning about football betting from scratch, click here.
To profit in the long run, sports betting most definitely isn’t about luck. Math must be on your side to profit using your knowledge of football.
That’s why if you back Real Madrid regardless of the odds and the handicaps, you’ll probably end up losing money.
But the team is so powerful, full of young players of immense talent as well as Benzema, the best player in the world according to the freshest footie awards, so why is that?
The Math Behind Football Bets
Let’s use an interesting analogy to understand this. Would you buy a lottery ticket, if it was a special ticket, with more numbers than usual, which would give you a 35% of chance of winning a €1 Million jackpot?
Most people would say yes, without asking the key question here: how much would this ticket cost?
If the price would be let’s say… €100, it’s probably worth the shot, right? But what if it cost €1k, then maybe you would need to split it with some friends? What if it cost €10k, for a 35% chance to win €1m?
As you see in this example, if the ticket is too pricy, and you have to share the profits with lots of friends… The math just doesn’t favour you!
The same thing happens with football betting. Even when you bet on Real Madrid to win a game.
Odds are the prices of the betting world. I don’t mean odd as the word odd, I mean the product odds.
Let’s learn how to identify good opportunities to bet on Los Blancos
When Betting on Real Madrid is a Good Idea
This question will have different answers depending on the form of the team, as well as the form of the rivals and opponents they will face.
Other short-term factors like the weather, injuries and suspensions will also affect the prices, i.e. the odds of Real Madrid, both in the popular 1×2 betting markets and the Asian Handicap advanced markets.
As a general rule, as of February 3rd 2023, I like to bet on Real Madrid when…
- They start with a strong defence (they lack depth in the sector right now)
- The Asian Handicap lines are below -1 (meaning handicaps of -0.5, -0.75 and -0.25 for example)
- 1×2 odds are bigger than 2.0
This doesn’t mean I bet blindly on those lines! I need to confirm a lot of prerequisites to place a bet. Professional bettors are picky.
Also, in the in-running (a.k.a. live) market, I like to bet on Real Madrid when the visitors score first.
They can often be ‘bought’ at nice odds in these markets when they are down in the score.
What I Don’t Like About Real Madrid in the Betting Markets
This is a long-term tendency, Real Madrid tends to be more pragmatic than Barcelona and adopt more cautious tactics once they are ahead in the score.
This is especially true under the command of Carlo Ancelotti in 2023. This means that I would only buy big negative handicaps like -1 or more under special circumstances like they are losing the game but playing well, and the opponent that is ahead in the score is a very fragile team.
Summary: Betting on Real Madrid and Big Teams
The betting world takes some math to deliver good long-term results. Remember that next time an opportunity seems great in the betting markets.
Ask yourself ‘what would be acceptable odds to back this potential event’.
A good sign that you’re improving your skills is the feeling of becoming picky when choosing bets. When you dodge ‘potentially easy events’ at the wrong prices, your betting results will improve exponentially!
